When I Say
Death of Blog? Not yet.
If you are experiencing heavy breathing you are: A) working out, B) having sex, C) in the middle of an asthma attack, D) scared about the economy, or E) far too big a fan of blog. Or a combination thereof.
A) Good for you
B) Gross. Pics or it didn’t happen.
C) Don’t you know steroids make you hit baseballs better?
D) see below
E) Three letters: T R O.
Ok, so the market is pretty rocky these days. A couple things:
The whole “credit” thing isn’t done yet. Just because “we” forgot about it for a month and the DOW got back to 13,000 doesn’t mean anything really changed. All that did was demonstrate that the market is merely a highly efficient reflection of inefficient human perception.
Global trade isn’t going to vaporize. China still needs loads of raw materials, and the other Asian countries aren’t just scratching their asses. Also, China isn’t going on vacation after the Olympics.
We can live with $130 oil. I know this seems incredulous, but it will not end life as we know it. It will shift our behaviours in sometimes subtle and sometimes obvious ways. Life will, however, continue much as before.
Oil reserve does not equal oil supply. Well, at least not in the present time frame. All that matters for the next 20 years (at least) is flow rate. Everyone knows we have enough Dino to rock our asses off for 20,30,50 years. How fast can you slurp the milkshake is what we need to know. As long as it’s 85 million barrels a day, oil will keep getting expensiver (just not necessarily at the same rapid pace). “Expensiver” is not a word, I know.
Dryships! Why hast thou forsaken me!!!!! If you bought DryShips before the death deying plunge, stay strong. The company is good and very profitable and will continue to be very profitable into the future. The price will recover, you just needs a HANS device to keep from getting fatal whiplash.
Going forward, 6th-10th business day generally means no blog: tooooo busy.
Also, next week I will be contemplating the cool air of Montana’s mountains while preparing my soul for the brimstone fired heat of the Texas summer.
I am civilized,
David Rockefeller
