The Destroyer of Finance

 Back in high school I wrote a paper in which I made a claim that the US ought to put more effort into builing our bond with Saudi Arabia and less effort into bonding with Israel.  One of the primary reasons I offered was that playing big brother to Israel was a major ass whipping and they are perfectly capable of taking care of themselves, so why do we need to catch the flack everytime they take a zippo and an aerosol can to an ant hill?

 In retrospect, I can see the utility of staying close to Israel, even if only to be better able to pull back on their reigns when they start getting too far off track.  Still, it sucks when Iran announces that, because they view Israel as eesentially a US colony, they will treat an attack by Israel as an attack by the US.

 The secret threat in the message is that Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event that Israel did something… rash.  The Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, is a whopping 21 miles wide at its narrowest and, oh yeah, something around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it.  Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE (even Bahrain and Qatar) all shiping most or all of their oil out through the Strait.

Above the water is Iran, below the UAE to the left and Oman to the right.

 From the picture, you can probably figure out the problem.  In an age where almost every geographic choke point has been rendered meaningless by technology, we have the Strait of Hormuz.

 Objectively, Iran’s military is really no more than mediocre.  Excluding the land forces, it’s really quite poor.  The air force is not terribly well equipped and lacking in talented pilots and the navy is a collection of jumped up speed boats with only a few frigate sized war vessels of debatable quality themselves.  Oh, and three Kilo submarines.  Ah.

 The rub: to close the Strait, Iran doesn’t have to physically prevent tankers from going through it.  Much like the genius of mining a harbor (which, by the way, Iran could do to the Strait), you don’t actually have to DO it to be effective as the threat alone will bring ship traffic to a halt.

 You’re the owner of an oil tanker.  It’s worth probably no less than $50 million and significantly more than that if it’s one of the really big suckers.  You know all it takes is one missle from an armed speed boat that sneaks by your naval escort, from a jet that manages to come in under the radar, from land even… or a torpedo from one of those damned submarines.  Sure, the subs are one shot weapons sure to be blasted out of the water after the attack, but you probably aren’t anxious to make your boat be the bait.  In addition, your crew is more than likely not going to be willing to man the ship on such a voyage.

 So, I saw a prediction for $300 oil if the Strait were closed, and $8 gallon gas (I guess that would mean, what, $15 gallon gas in Europe?  Just add about $4 to what it is now).  I think they overstate the gas price a little… maybe only $7.50.

 How do you feel about bombing Iran now?

 I really think that if Israel and Iran would go sit in their corners and think about what they’ve done that the price of oil would be ready to come down some.  There are clear signs of demand destruction (both short term and long term), which should help the supply/demand fundamentals, but this other sideline crap is stirring things up too much.  That’s fine with Iran, of course, as they think higher prices are better anyway.

 In closing, please don’t bomb Iran, but if you do, please legalize whale hunting so we can harvest their blubber for oil again.

 I’m going to open up a new Starbucks… oops,

 Rene Lacoste

 Sup?

 I regret to announce that blog service may be interrupted this Thursday and Friday, as I voyage to New Mexico.  I thought about staying home and using a lighter to burn a dollar bill about every 8 minutes (but saving the gas and pain of sitting in a car for 8 hours), but decided that wasn’t a workable option.

 Why 8 minutes?  Assuming $3.75/gal, 33MPG (presviously observed), and avg speed of 65MPH, you get an average fuel burn of 12.3 cents per minute.  Factoring in parts wear, a dollar every eight minutes is probably overly generous.  And while gas can still be had for $3.60 here in Big D, out in the Styx (and in New Mexico), you’d have to provide sexual favors to get gas for less than $3.80 or $3.90.

 And yes, fun with numbers is fun.  And excessive.

 Also, based on a really expensive consultant’s advice, there may be format changes forthcoming.

 In China, the Earth decided to make some format changes via a nice 7.9 magnitude earthquake.  Here we learn that shoddy construction methods + crowded urban environment + big bad rumble shake shake = indiscriminate population control.

 Continuing the lessons of population control in Asia, we seeing further what having a terrible government in charge of a poor populace leads to in Myanmar.  The military rulers in Myanmar ought to cast an eye over to pre-WWII China and remember that if you take away enough from the people you rule, eventually the threat of death isn’t a deterrent.  Maybe we need to throw some history books in with the aid shipment.

 Along the same lines, things still not looking great in Lebanon.  To recap, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Myanmar: all off the vacation list.

 Coming back to the domestic side of things, we see that tomorrow Mrs. Clinton expects a big win in West Virginia.  Why the big win?  Well, since it’s obviously not due to a lack of ethic demographics at the voting booths, it must be because of the sophisticated electorate.

Like most people in Mingo County, West Virginia, Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican.

“I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an atheist,” said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.

Mr Simpson’s remarks help explain why Mr Obama is trailing Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival, by 40 percentage points ahead of Tuesday’s primary election in the heavily white and rural state, according to recent opinion polls.

 It seems I should insert some sort of biting, curt commentary here about reaping what you sew, but surely I am mistaken.

 What does this do for Clinton’s presidential bid?  Nothing, of course.  It’s still about as alive as that woman in Florida a couple years ago.  All that’s left is a lawsuit, some bitter tears for the media, and then turning out the lights.

 Clinton for VP?  If you want Obama to win, you better start throwing Holy Water on Clinton to make her go away, but rumor has it the Mrs. Obama isn’t to keen on the idea to begin with.  Clinton brings Obama nothing, and brings me only typos that I have to constantly correct.

 I’ve been waiting to see who my leader will be, and a new front runner has emerged: Mr. Barr.  He still has to beat the former anonymous Democrat Mike Gravel, but I’m not sure that will be such a hard thing to do.

 I can’t wait to throw my vote straight into the toilet in November.  It’ll be grand.

 By the way, did any democratic supporters of Gravel realize he supported the general equivalent of privatising Social Security?

 So, yeah.  Go world, and everyone have a happy stuff.

 If I was a terrorist and didn’t want to be, I don’t think i’d carry a gun.

 Ben Hur died this weekend.  Rumor has it that after expiring, the doctor was finally able to get that rifle out of his hands.

 The hottest new sport sweeping the globe is Torch Snuffing.  Loads of funny.

 Absolut thinks foot flavored vodka is a good product, panders to the Mexican a little too hard while forgetting about this thing called “the internet.”  Maybe Absolut would like to run a new marketing campaign where in an “Absolut world” there’s a 50 mile wide body of sea between the US and Mexico.  I’m pretty sure that’d be in the same range of taste and sensibility.

Absolut said the ad was designed for a Mexican audience and intended to recall “a time which the population of Mexico might feel was more ideal.”

 So, when everyone lived in abject poverty, were lorded over by a handful of very wealthy aristocrats and dictators who constantly mismanaged their resources, and were a nation that was of almost no importance on the international stage?

 Why would they need to recall that?  Can’t they just look around instead?

 Clinton is in big, deep S as polls show her nearly tied in former stronghold Pennsylvania and waaaay behind in North Carolina.  In theory we could be done with her as early as May 7th.

 Opposition leader writes column for The Guardian as Mugabe goes through the motions to rig election and continue crapping in his personal sandbox (Zimbabwe).

 Man, that is some stuff!

 As the saying goes: Are you ready to tussle?

             Wait wait… that’s not right.  Fight?  Enter into physical confrontation? 

         No… I remember.

 ARE YOU READY TO ENGAGE IN DIRECT CONFLICT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A bad week in a tough town.

 Clinton gets testy, ramps up her “who can beat McCain” strategy… and already has one loss, apparently.

 Obama, on the other hands, drains $40 million out the pockets of the American worker in the month of March.  How dare he weaken our economy like that at a time like this!  It has got to be a really rough year for non-profits to raise money.  Between people being owrried about the economy and giving money to politicians, how much money is going to be left?

I swear to God, it’s like somebody took America by the East Coast, and shook it, and all the normal girls managed to hang on.

 Continuing with abrasive stances, Argentina has apparently forgotten that, well, maybe the Falklands really ARE British Territory. 

In her speech Kirchner called for Argentina to strengthen its representation in international bodies to denounce “this shameful colonial enclave in the 21st century.”

 I may be totally off here, but since 70% of the residents are of British descent and are full British citizens, um…

 NATO agrees that poking Russia with sharp sticks is fun, green lights the US missle defense.  And this after agreeing to invite the Ukraine and Georgia to the NATO “lifestyle” party someday (but not just yet).  Poor, lonely Russia.

I’m retired, I invented dice as a kid.

 Zimbabwe still swings in the wind as Mugabe’s party was officially lost control of one of the chambers up parliament, but suspends vote counting for “logistical” reasons.  Tip number 1 to Zimbabwe: your council of senior leadership is called the “politburo”?  Sure recipe for disaster.

 I am so close to making the cut!

 Dr. Irwin Goldstein, editor of the Journal of Sexual Medicine, cited a four-week study of 1,500 couples in 2005 that found the median time for sexual intercourse was 7.3 minutes. (Women were armed with stopwatches.)

 How hot is that?  Playing with a stopwatch while doin’ it.

Don’t quit your gay job.

Yertle the Turtle?  I’m a Satanic Toad… with armor!

The Future Is A No Brainer

 To supplement a general malaise in the realm of US politics, I’m forced to turn to adding in general international events.  In the end, it’s probably more entertaining that hearing about how Clinton and Obama are still biting each other in the throat for the next 3 or 4 months.

Shut up. Sit your monkey ass down. Chill out.

 Ukraine appears poised for an invitation to join NATO.  This has the potential for long term benefits, but boy I bet Russia is major pissed.  Ukraine would probably be a willing donor of troops to NATO missions and take up some of the demand on other Euro militaries.  Also, the Ukraine produces a nifty variant of the T-80 tank which I wouldn’t mind taking a look at to fill a role in the US military as a sort of general utility tank.  I’m not saying it’s as good in tank to tank combat as the M1, but it’s certainly cheaper.

 Zimbabwe still unsure whether Mugabe lost the election or whether he’s going to rig them.  No, there’s not really a third option.

You think Einstein walked around thinkin’ everyone was a bunch of dumb shits?

 Our high school system is awesome.

Seventeen of the nation’s 50 largest cities had high school graduation rates lower than 50 percent, with the lowest graduation rates reported in Detroit, Indianapolis and Cleveland, according to a report released Tuesday.

Nationally, about 70 percent of U.S. students graduate on time with a regular diploma and about 1.2 million students drop out annually.

The report found troubling data on the prospects of urban public high school students getting to college. In Detroit’s public schools, 24.9 percent of the students graduated from high school, while 30.5 percent graduated in Indianapolis Public Schools and 34.1 percent received diplomas in the Cleveland Municipal City School District.

His [Colin Powell] wife, Alma Powell, the chair of the alliance, said students need to graduate with skills that will help them in higher education and beyond. “We must invest in the whole child, and that means finding solutions that involve the family, the school and the community.” The Powell’s organization was beginning a national campaign to cut high school dropout rates.

 So, some selective excerpts.  I believe there are a number of issues at work: inappropriate pay for teachers, inappropriate curriculum at schools, and a disincentive to work in society.

 For teachers, it is sometimes the case that they are not paid enough.  More often, however, is that some of the teachers are paid equitable wages while others are not.  That statement is regardless of skill level, by they way.  All I am talking about here is that if you are an english teacher or social studies teacher the competition for your skills in the job marketplace is probably limited outside of of the teaching world.  Sorry.  If, however, you have the background to be a math teacher or science teacher, chances are pretty good that there are any number of opportunities for you to find well compensated careers outside of the teaching realm.

 Yet math teachers get paid equally with english teachers.  Do we wonder why math is such a hard teaching position to fill in schools, and why it is such a struggle to boost math skills in the students?

 Secondly, I bolded what I thought was a key statement in the article: the kids need to graduate with skills.  That includes, but should not be exclusive to, skills that will help advance higher education.  However, it should also include skills for succeeding in the labor workplace.  We need a system for kids that are probably never going to go to college to learn some sort of trade, and yet we’ve seemed to discourage such programs in a narrow minded attempt to force every kid to go to college.

 Finally, there is a disincentive to work in our society.  The elaborate social welfare safety nets, while filled with good intent, are a drag on the motivation of people at the bottom of the economic ladder.  If you can bust your ass at a job and make $14k a year, or you can hang out with your friends and ring up $10k in welfare/social programs… hey, one is just as shitty as the other except for the amount of free time you have.  So you get a string of low paying jobs that alternate with unemployment, and that sort of mindset pretty much prevents putting together any sort of career or advancement… or success.  Of course, if a kid has grown up with the expectation of not finding success, why should he care about algebra?

Now you know why he built that bomb.

 Quite a sad state of affairs.