Big D Might Stand For “Big Dumbass”
Why living near Dallas is good comedy; why NOT actually living IN Dallas is a bonus; why Dallas might be the same sort of hellhole that Detroit is: all these things are found here:
A special meeting about Dallas County traffic tickets turned tense and bizarre this afternoon.
County commissioners were discussing problems with the central collections office that is used to process traffic ticket payments and handle other paperwork normally done by the JP Courts.
Commissioner Kenneth Mayfield, who is white, said it seemed that central collections “has become a black hole” because paperwork reportedly has become lost in the office.
Commissioner John Wiley Price, who is black, interrupted him with a loud “Excuse me!” He then corrected his colleague, saying the office has become a “white hole.”
That prompted Judge Thomas Jones, who is black, to demand an apology from Mayfield for his racially insensitive analogy.
Mayfield shot back that it was a figure of speech and a science term. A black hole, according to Webster’s, is perhaps “the invisible remains of a collapsed star, with an intense gravitational field from which neither light nor matter can escape.”
Other county officials quickly interceded to break it up and get the meeting back on track. TV news cameras were rolling, after all.
And that’s just a meeting about traffic tickets! You should see the angst in meetings about road repairs (“What do you mean ‘black top’? I say we line the roads with ‘white top’!) and school board meetings (“I will WHIP YO ASS!) [quotes for illustrative purposes only, not real quotes. Yet.]
Bad Day
You know its a bad day when an analyst cuts your target stock price to $0. Ah, Indymac Bank… how will we survive without your no income verification subprime loans?
Strait Jackin
Back in high school I wrote a paper in which I made a claim that the US ought to put more effort into builing our bond with Saudi Arabia and less effort into bonding with Israel. One of the primary reasons I offered was that playing big brother to Israel was a major ass whipping and they are perfectly capable of taking care of themselves, so why do we need to catch the flack everytime they take a zippo and an aerosol can to an ant hill?
In retrospect, I can see the utility of staying close to Israel, even if only to be better able to pull back on their reigns when they start getting too far off track. Still, it sucks when Iran announces that, because they view Israel as eesentially a US colony, they will treat an attack by Israel as an attack by the US.
The secret threat in the message is that Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event that Israel did something… rash. The Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, is a whopping 21 miles wide at its narrowest and, oh yeah, something around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it. Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE (even Bahrain and Qatar) all shiping most or all of their oil out through the Strait.
Above the water is Iran, below the UAE to the left and Oman to the right.
From the picture, you can probably figure out the problem. In an age where almost every geographic choke point has been rendered meaningless by technology, we have the Strait of Hormuz.
Objectively, Iran’s military is really no more than mediocre. Excluding the land forces, it’s really quite poor. The air force is not terribly well equipped and lacking in talented pilots and the navy is a collection of jumped up speed boats with only a few frigate sized war vessels of debatable quality themselves. Oh, and three Kilo submarines. Ah.
The rub: to close the Strait, Iran doesn’t have to physically prevent tankers from going through it. Much like the genius of mining a harbor (which, by the way, Iran could do to the Strait), you don’t actually have to DO it to be effective as the threat alone will bring ship traffic to a halt.
You’re the owner of an oil tanker. It’s worth probably no less than $50 million and significantly more than that if it’s one of the really big suckers. You know all it takes is one missle from an armed speed boat that sneaks by your naval escort, from a jet that manages to come in under the radar, from land even… or a torpedo from one of those damned submarines. Sure, the subs are one shot weapons sure to be blasted out of the water after the attack, but you probably aren’t anxious to make your boat be the bait. In addition, your crew is more than likely not going to be willing to man the ship on such a voyage.
So, I saw a prediction for $300 oil if the Strait were closed, and $8 gallon gas (I guess that would mean, what, $15 gallon gas in Europe? Just add about $4 to what it is now). I think they overstate the gas price a little… maybe only $7.50.
How do you feel about bombing Iran now?
I really think that if Israel and Iran would go sit in their corners and think about what they’ve done that the price of oil would be ready to come down some. There are clear signs of demand destruction (both short term and long term), which should help the supply/demand fundamentals, but this other sideline crap is stirring things up too much. That’s fine with Iran, of course, as they think higher prices are better anyway.
In closing, please don’t bomb Iran, but if you do, please legalize whale hunting so we can harvest their blubber for oil again.
I’m going to open up a new Starbucks… oops,
Rene Lacoste
Lacking
Recap of Glacier National Park? Not yet.
Good times to be a bank? Not yet.
Light at the end of the tunnel? Not yet.
Bad news: Oil at $143. Don’t think I need to explain this one.
Bad news: Expected corn harvest drops due to flooding. 7% drop! F!
Bad news: Eurozone inflation up to 4%. Bad because if the EU Bank raises rates to fight inflation and the US doesn’t, it will drive down the strength of the dollar more… making oil more expensive.
Bad news: EU telecom merger undone. When companies start becoming prudent with their mergers, it’s generally not a good sign.
Good news: I got a new phone this weekend?
Here’s to the lucky ones,
Charles VIII of France
An Interactive Blog Posting
For today’s recap of the stock market, I require audience participation.
Please find a water hose of some sort: garden, detachable sink faucet, shower head, fire hose, super soaker, etc. Ensure ready supply of water. Really even a regular bucket of water will do.
Engage the supply of water (hose or bucket) in such a manner as to apply a steady steam of water against your person.
Now scream.
Louder.
While continuing the above, view the picture below
If you’d like you could maim yourself now, but that’s likely taking things too far.
Given that 1 in 5 stocks across all three major markets (NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ) was actually green (up) today, odds are pretty good you might have lost some money today.
OIl at $140? You think Congress can wave a wand and make it go back to $60? Oil futures are trade globally now… outlaw them in the US, their trading will go to London, Paris, Geneva, Hong Kong, Singapore, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Kuwait City, Moscow. It could go anywhere. The people who testify to congress that congress could legislate oil back to $60? Want to bet that they’re getting killed being on the wrong side of some oil derivatives?
Anyway, I have changed my mind on the gas tax repeal. In the short run, if you lifted the federal gas tax ($.18/gal) I do think the price of gas would drop. It probably wouldn’t drop 18 cents (the refineries would want to get some of their lost profit margin back), but probably 10-15 cents. I forgot, and was reminded, that the gasoline retail market is such a competitive one that gas stations make next to no profit on the gas they sell, relying instead on snacks and sodas for the Hamiltons. This is assuming, of course, that it’s not the only gas station within miles or right next to the rental car place at the airport. Or at a boat dock.
Anyway, I was remebered this in Omaha when I was startled to note that “super” (mid grade) gas there was 10 cents cheaper than regular (premium was 30 cents higher than mid grade). Ultimately, I learned that mid grade is cheaper because it has ethanol in it and the other grades apparently don’t (and since it’s NEBRASKA, corn ethanol is cheap). Also, it’d be interesting to know what the MPG difference was (ethanol has a significantly lower energy content / volume, and thus less MPG than gasoline… no, octane has nothing to do with energy content, look it up) and whether or not it was worth the 10 cent discount to get the mid grade.
Ah, stats!
Boats float, banks sink;
Colonel Tom Parker
The College Series of the World For Baseball Championship
My review of the Omaha, Nebraska located College World Series opening weekend.
In pictures:
In words:
The baseball: greatness. Even if Miami did lose to Georgia (in a panic button breaking atomic meltdown 9th inning that saw the closer throw a routine ball into the outfield and me leaping out of my seat screaming “Oh no! FUCK!”)
The atmosphere: greatness (thanks to the LSU crowd for Sunday night especially)
The chaos: greatness. A total carnival… outside the stadium felt like a state fair with twice as many people partying as were inside the stadium watching the game.
Did I mention there was T and A everywhere you looked? Oh, to be back in college…
Imagine this true life re-enactment of a conversation I actually heard while in line for a hotdog. Principles: a person I never saw (behind me) and to the side, a cute college co-ed with short denim shorts and a red halter top.. around her waist, as she’s untied the top in order to better expose her bikini top.
Coed: What the FUCK! I totally didn’t even see you there! blah blah blah… and I’m sitting next to this guy who’s, like, “I have my 5 year old kid with me” (ed note: apparently objecting to her attire) and I was like, “Look mister, the is the COLLEGE world series! And what’s college about? Drinking and Fucking! And I’m here to drink and fuck!!!”
I couldn’t even begin to make up that story if it didn’t happen word for word. I swore to myself on the spot I would remember the whole statement. I memorized it.
And let me tell you, there were plenty of people (dudes and dudettes) who were there for those two items primarily. As close to spring break in Panama City Beach as you can get in a baseball stadium. This may shock some of you, but I’ve been there, too.
Some notes:
A) What’s the deal with tube tops? Pay attention girls: the odds of you looking good in a tube top is so remote as to not be worth it. If you’ve got too little up top, it doesn’t work. If you’ve got too much, it gives you saggy pointy boob. Plenty of other attire works better to exhibit your wares. Of course, if you’re looking for easy access, nothing works better.
B) Dudes: Shaving a six pack into your belly hair IS funny, but so is a drunk hobo.
C) To the ball girl: if you stand right next to the netting, the ball is going to roll off of it and go over your head and the stadium WILL boo you. I would have thought you’d catch that after the first few times.
D) To Kyle Shelton, the North Carolina left fielder who out-sprinted a member of the grounds crew to rescue a beach ball from certain death and throw it back into the stands: We salute you. (He also got perhaps the loudest ovation of the night).
E) What’s the deal with short skirts and shorts? More, plz.
F) Stanford scoring 11 runs in the top of the 9th made a long game last an eternity. It WAS warm/hot and sunny, by the way, which made a 4+ hour game uncomfortable. Also, a word to the Florida State coach: what the hell were you thinking taking your best hitter and good defensive catcher OUT of your lineup after catching for 8 innings (wearing catching armor and squatting in the sun while throwing the ball back to the pitcher over and over and over) and making him pitch in a TIE game? Sure, I understand he can throw gas, but he was clearly gassed after catching all game. The result? Single, 1-base error (shortstop), Sac Fly (out #1), intentional walk, single, walk, 1-base error (shortstop).
If you like baseball, you should go at least once. If you like college sports, you should go at least once. If you are single and of roughly college-esque age and want to plow some turf/get plow, you should go. If you just want to party, you should go.
Omaha seems to be a nice city, too, by the way.
My power is pure;
Daniel Ludwig
The Write Stuff
College World Series = awesome
Glacier National Park = awe incarnate
ATT cell service in NW Montana <> good
Blog update = forthcoming w/ CWS review, GNP review, and finance (of course).
When I Say
Death of Blog? Not yet.
If you are experiencing heavy breathing you are: A) working out, B) having sex, C) in the middle of an asthma attack, D) scared about the economy, or E) far too big a fan of blog. Or a combination thereof.
A) Good for you
B) Gross. Pics or it didn’t happen.
C) Don’t you know steroids make you hit baseballs better?
D) see below
E) Three letters: T R O.
Ok, so the market is pretty rocky these days. A couple things:
The whole “credit” thing isn’t done yet. Just because “we” forgot about it for a month and the DOW got back to 13,000 doesn’t mean anything really changed. All that did was demonstrate that the market is merely a highly efficient reflection of inefficient human perception.
Global trade isn’t going to vaporize. China still needs loads of raw materials, and the other Asian countries aren’t just scratching their asses. Also, China isn’t going on vacation after the Olympics.
We can live with $130 oil. I know this seems incredulous, but it will not end life as we know it. It will shift our behaviours in sometimes subtle and sometimes obvious ways. Life will, however, continue much as before.
Oil reserve does not equal oil supply. Well, at least not in the present time frame. All that matters for the next 20 years (at least) is flow rate. Everyone knows we have enough Dino to rock our asses off for 20,30,50 years. How fast can you slurp the milkshake is what we need to know. As long as it’s 85 million barrels a day, oil will keep getting expensiver (just not necessarily at the same rapid pace). “Expensiver” is not a word, I know.
Dryships! Why hast thou forsaken me!!!!! If you bought DryShips before the death deying plunge, stay strong. The company is good and very profitable and will continue to be very profitable into the future. The price will recover, you just needs a HANS device to keep from getting fatal whiplash.
Going forward, 6th-10th business day generally means no blog: tooooo busy.
Also, next week I will be contemplating the cool air of Montana’s mountains while preparing my soul for the brimstone fired heat of the Texas summer.
I am civilized,
David Rockefeller
And A Cod Piece The Size of Mini Me
Quite a day, no?
Following up a great day yesterday, we get today featuring some reaming worthy of an edgy porn flick.
How does everyone feel about $139 barrel oil?
How about a larger than expected jump to 5.5% unemployment?
How about corn (and wheat) jumping on too much rain in the midwest? Hadn’t heard much about grains from me in a while, eh? They’ve been moderating a bit… actually, the price of wheat has even still fallen quite a bit from the bire days of a few months ago. Still, they ain’t cheap.
Insurance giant AIG, already beset by financial woes, now faces probe by SEC regarding how they represented the value of various subprime mortgage contracts.
AMD can’t pull its fist out of its ass long enough to beat Intel on the open market, so they’re taking to the courts. I’m no Intel fan so I wouldn’t mind seeing a win for AMD, but it wouldn’t change the fact that AMD shat on numerous opportunities to really make some inroads against Intel without any outside help.
I spent a few hours this morning running through the mind numbing excercise of trying to forecast the interal profit margin for a particular product at the bank for the next 18 months. Couple highlights: its internal only, meaning its fake, hypothetical profit to begin with, and secondly how the hell am I supposed to say what our interest margin on this is going to be in 18 months? Have you looked out the window recently?
Rangers drafted Smoak and I approve.
Can’t wait to drive to Omaha,
Nathan Hale
An Axe That Shot Fire Out Of The Top
Those cell phone commercials with the wizard might have to get redone as Verizon is attempting to acquire Alltel for a paltry $27B. This doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense given that a private equity group paid $27.5B for Alltel a little over a year ago. Could be just another example of the irrational exuberance that existed in the world of finance as little as a year ago.
In other acquisition deals that involve “B”s, Smucker’s thinks you need some caffeine with your jam, buys Folgers from Proctor & Gamble for $3B. In a modestly humorous twist, PG shareholders will end up owning 53% of the new Smuckers.
Some more better-than-a-shiv-in-your-crotch news on the economy reveals that US worker productivity was up while wage increases remained moderate, yet measurable. So, things could be better, but at least you don’t have a shiv in your crotch. Of course, we might be saying that about our economic read outs for a while…
In the end, the market indexes mostly tanked after Moody’s (the rating agency) announced they were considering cutting the credit ratings for financial insurance giants MBIA and Ambac. This won’t affect your car coverage, but it might shake your city’s ability to fund new roads and stuff. Well, not in Texas since we apparently contract EVERYTHING to be toll roads.
MBIA and Ambac both dropped at least 15% almost immediately, so probably not your best day if you’re still holding that bag this evening.
In my continuing fascination: part 3: day one of how Finland does do teaching the childrens.
So now that Hillary is officially unofficially done, we can start the VP guessing game. Yeah.
Hmmm… short post today. Sounds good to me.
Greatness,
Angelina Jolie
